The Update is Washington State architect's link to what is happening politically, sent out to over 2,000 readers, and provided by the AIA Washington Council, the legislative arm of the American Institute of Architects in Washington. |
Election Results Special:
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Architect Behind in the 7th District
Governor's Race
Other Statewide Races
Congress
State Senate
House
What this Means for the AIA|WA's Agenda
Due to the state's nearly comprehensive vote-by-mail system, and problems with ballot counting in King and Pierce Counties, the election returns are preliminary at best. Roughly 50% of the ballots returned have been counted. It was predicted that there would be over 80% voter turnout in this year's election. As of this afternoon, turnout is at 49%. So, it's likely that just about 60% of the ballots have been returned, with the rest probably in the mail. Thus, only about 30% of anticipated ballots have been counted. There could be more than 1.3 million ballots, including over 842,000 that have been received but not counted, to be factored in.
But, some details and trends are clear despite the lagging calculations. So, with that caveat, here are some interesting results of the 2008 Election.
Architect Behind in the 7th District
Architect Sue Lani Madsen, AIA, (R) is trailing her opponent in the race for the House seat in the 7th Legislative District 43-57%. While some counties have a large number of ballots yet to count and more are likely in the mail, it will be very difficult for Sue Lani to overcome the current 5,150 vote deficit she faces. Sue Lani ran a very good campaign and we are all proud of her hard work. It will take some time to sort through the results to better understand the race. But, she faced a determined opponent who had the support of powerful legislators and affluent interests.
Governor's Race
The big news of the night is that the Governor's race started close, but Gregoire pulled ahead as King and Pierce County votes were counted. Gregoire continued to increase her percentage of the vote in most counties across the state. Rossi conceded this morning, saying that the incumbent governor's lead was insurmountable.
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Other Statewide Races
Statewide candidates supported by APAC are doing well. Attorney General, Rob McKenna (R), appears headed for an easy re-election. Lt Governor, Brad Owen (D), is also cruising into another term.
Public Lands Commissioner, Doug Sutherland, is locked in a tight race that could switch hands several times before the election is certified.
Congress
The only Congressional seat in question was in the 8th District (East King and Pierce Counties) where incumbent Dave Reichert (R) holds a slim lead over challenger Darcy Burner (D). The result of the race will not affect the balance of power in the US Congress. But, if Reichert loses, it would be another moderate Republican lost to an increasing Democrat majority. Burner would be the first Democrat to represent the seat since it was created in 1980.
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State Senate
On the legislative level, the Senate looks to have no major changes. Most incumbents are likely to be re-elected but, there are a few tight races. On the Republican side, Senator Don Benton (R-17, Vancouver) is trailing by 147 votes and Senator Mike Carrell (R-28, Pierce County) leads 53-47%.
On the Democrat side, Senator Marilyn Rasmussen (D-2, Eatonville) is slightly ahead by 555 votes.
At this point the Democrats may add one seat or lose a one seat in the Senate. The party split in the Senate is currently 32 Democrats to 16 Republicans.back to top
House
The House is currently controlled by the Democrats 60-35. The final totals are a bit more difficult to predict. As of this morning, the balance of power is not going to change. There are some pick-ups for each party.
The Democrats have gained an open seat in the 17th District (Vancouver). The Republicans look likely to pick up a seat in the 6th District (Spokane); where Kevin Parker (R) is ahead of incumbent Don Barlow (D). The Republicans may also pick up the open seat in 26th District (Pierce/Kitsap Counties).
Several incumbent Republicans are locked in tight races that are too close to call at this point. These include Glenn Anderson (R-5, Sammamish), John Ahern (R-6, Spokane), Norma Smith (R-10, Island/Skagit Counties) and Skip Priest (R-30, Federal Way).
Another close race is the open Republican seat in the 25th (Pierce County) where professional engineer, Bruce Dammeier (R), holds a slim lead over his opponent.
Thus, the Republicans could pick up one seat or the Democrats could net five seats. The likely scenario is that the Democrats will gain one to two seats in the House. back to top
What this Means for the AIA|WA's Agenda
Much of the AIA|WA's agenda is non-partisan, so the impacts are unclear. Our licensing agenda likely will not be impacted. Impacts on our agenda are likely to occur in the areas of: sustainability, development laws, liability and taxes.
With the AIA's 2030 Challenge being promoted by the Climate Action Team to the Governor, her re-election, and Democrat majorities in the legislature, the sustainability agenda is likely to benefit. The path becomes easier to increase the requirements on publicly-funded buildings, mandate energy code changes and possibly even make changes to utilities laws that implement new incentives.
The very real threat to the profession from expanded liability will continue. We have successfully stopped bad bills in the House within the current legislative environment, but we have not been able to impede them in the Senate. The extent of the threat will be determined by the results of the legislative workgroup on housing liability and the scale of their final recommendations.
The anti-vesting push by the environmental community will also remain a high threat. Continuing Democrats will receive greater pressure from the environmental community to pass a bill.
Probably the biggest concern will be in the area of taxes. The state budget is projected to have at least a $3.2 billion deficit (and 2 more revenue forecasts are due before the budget is written). The economy continues to falter and revenues will likely continue in a downward trend.
There will be tremendous pressure to raise taxes to cover some, or most, of the budget gap. The easiest method to raise a large amount of revenue would be across the board increases in sales, property and B&O (business) taxes. Yet, even with large majorities, the Democrats are liable to be reluctant about extensive tax increases. However, targeted tax increases are likely.
Four years ago the Democrats focused on specific industries and products on which to raise taxes. They also looked to raise taxes around the margins such as enacting a per lot tax, employee head tax and other such taxes. We will need to be vigilant against a professional services tax and targeted B&O tax increases.
The last time there was a budget shortfall, in 2005, several bills were introduced that would have taxed architects: The repeal of the professional services exemption, House Bill 1095
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A new tax on "intangibles," Senate Bill 6004 and Senate Joint Resolution 8212,
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A new tax on "unearned income," House Bill 2318
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The per employee "head tax," Senate Bill 6103
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A new tax on proper lots and residences, also in Senate Bill 6103
Thus, we will need to be vigilant as the budget is written. The first indication will be the Governor's budget proposal in mid-December.
Overall the AIA|WA's agenda has room to flourish and to fail as a result of yesterday's elections. Due to the non-partisan nature of most of our issues the council is able to be successful despite changes in government. However, with sustainability issues being supported and taxes expected to be levied the coming session is likely to be dynamic. back to top |
